2013 NBA Finals: Miami HEAT Won Game 6 with Relentless Resilience. Who Will Bring It In Game 7?

The relentless resilience of Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers and the 3 Kings helped the Miami HEAT make a 4th quarter comeback to defend their throne in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.

It all started with the program for Game 6 of the NBA Finals at American Airlines Arena. Here's an excerpt from an article in the program titled, "Relentless: The Miami HEAT" by James Oyola:

When competing for a championship, the intangible perspective from team, or player, is just as important as a specific skill set. One of the traits that separate champions from contenders is resilience. The essence of not giving up, even when the odds do not seem in your favor, is a key ingredient for success.

The Miami HEAT went into the 4th quarter for Game 6 of the NBA Finals down 10 points with just a 27% probability of winning the game to that point. It wasn't just an elimination game for the series against the Spurs. It was an elimination game for their season and everything they stood for going into that 4th quarter. This team was built to win championships. That 10-point deficit threatened to take away what they were built for. It threatened their purpose.



It looked like they needed to play their best 4th quarter of the season. They played their most productive 4th quarter of the Finals instead. And that was enough to get them into overtime, where their purpose persisted to preserve their season.



Most Productive Players

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.



The HEAT were at their best in the Finals when things looked their worst going into the 4th quarter. The table below lists the est. wins produced by the HEAT in the 4th quarters against the Spurs this series.

HEAT 4th Quarter Production
in 2013 NBA Finals

WHEN	QTR	TEAM	OPP	Est.WP
Game 6	Period 4	MIA	SAS	0.362
Game 2	Period 4	MIA	SAS	0.338
Game 4	Period 4	MIA	SAS	0.285
Game 5	Period 4	MIA	SAS	0.073
Game 1	Period 4	MIA	SAS	-0.102
Game 3	Period 4	MIA	SAS	-0.252

The HEAT increased their chance of winning Game 6 by 42% in the 4th quarter and OT while the Spurs decreased their chance of winning by 10%.



Mike Miller was the most productive HEAT player in the 4th quarter and OT. He increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 13% with his one-shoe three-pointer to cut the Spurs lead to 4 early in the 4th quarter, 2 defensive rebounds and 1 shot block. His hustle to pick up the offensive rebound and assist for LeBron James' big three that cut the Spurs lead to 2 with 20.1 seconds left set the table for Ray Allen.

Allen was the 2nd most productive HEAT player in the 4th quarter and OT. He increased the HEAT's chance of winning 11.5% by scoring all 9 of his points for the game in the last two periods on 3-4 shooting with the game-tying 3 to force OT and a clutch steal and 2 free throws in OT that were the last points scored in the game.

Mario Chalmers was the most productive HEAT player in the game and the 3rd most productive HEAT player in the 4th quarter and OT. Rio scored 17 points on 6-9 shooting to increase the HEAT's chance of winning 22% in the first 3 quarters and kept the deficit within 10 by running the 1-3 pick-and-roll he and LeBron had so much success with in Game 2. Rio finished what he started with 3 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist that increased the HEAT's chance of winning 10% in the 4th quarter and OT.



Rio outplayed Tony Parker for the 2nd time in the Finals. Parker only increased the Spurs' chance of winning 5% in the 4th quarter and OT with 2-8 shooting, including 0-4 in OT and 1-2 from the FT line. Parker shot 6-23 for the game.



While members of the "Little 12" thrived, the 3 Kings struggled in Game 6. They only increased the HEAT's chance of winning 4% while the Older Gods on the Spurs increased their team's chance of winning 26%. The difference between the two groups was how they finished.



Tim Duncan was the 2nd most productive Spurs player with 30 points on 13-21 shooting and 17 rebounds that increased his team's chance of winning the game by 20%, but he decreased their chance of winning 18% in the 4th quarter and OT by shooting 0-5 from the floor.



The same story goes for Kawhi Leonard, the most productive Spurs player in Game 6. Leonard racked up 22 points and 11 rebounds to increase his team's chance of winning 24%, but his missed free throw with 19 seconds left gave Ray Allen the opportunity to send the game into OT with that clutch 3-pointer.



Despite their struggles, the 3 Kings showed tremendous resilience to come through for their teammates when they needed them.



Chris Bosh increased the HEAT's chance of winning 5% in the 4th quarter and OT with BIG plays for 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist and 2 blocks. That 1 rebound and assist were the offensive board and pass to Ray Allen for the game-tying 3. Those 2 points were the 1st in OT and those 2 blocks were in the last 32 seconds and saved the game.

LeBron increased the HEAT's chance of winning 4% in the 4th quarter and OT with 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 big block on Tim Duncan. His impact was reduced by the 4 turnovers, 2 fouls and Kawhi Leonard (who had 9 points and 4 boards without any turnovers). Instead of letting the turnovers cost the HEAT the game like they did in Game 1, LeBron kept fighting to win and in the end he made up for it... and fucked around and got a triple double.

Least Productive Players

Danny Green was the least productive player in Game 6. He decreased the Spurs' chance of winning by 11% with 1-7 shooting and 4 fouls. So much for the random scrub HEAT killer becoming Finals MVP.



Like Green, Manu Ginobili went from sugar to shit in Game 6. He decreased the Spurs' chance of winning by 8% with 4 fouls and career-high 8 turnovers in 34.7 minutes, including the turnover that led to Ray Allen clinching the game with 2 free throws in OT.



Birdman and Dwyane Wade were the least productive HEAT players in Game 6. They each decreased the team's chance of winning by 1%. Wade struggled to score 14 points on 15 shots (40% shooting) and his 3 turnovers and 4 fouls didn't help. Birdman was active with 4 rebounds and 3 steals but racked up 4 fouls in 14 minutes and only scored 1 point.



Game 7

The more resilient team will win Game 7 and the 2013 NBA championship.



Will Ginobili and Green bounce back from their poor performances in a heart-breaking defeat? Will Kawhi Leonard continue to play well or go out like Nick Anderson after missing a free throw that could've won the Spurs a title? Will Duncan find a way to dominate the game from beginning to end? Will Parker find a way to score efficiently against a defensive attack led by LeBron James?



Will Wade and the 3 Kings follow-up sub-par production in Game 6 with the BIG Game 7 performance their teammates and fans expect? Will Mario Chalmers find a way to be productive in consecutive games for the first time this series? Will Udonis Haslem be ready to knock down shots, defend and clean up the glass without fouling if called on in Game 7 after being benched for Game 6? Will offensive players like Mike Miller and Ray Allen be able to dig deep and lockdown the Spurs defensively? Will Erik Spoelstra trust them if they struggle or trust his defensive players instead?



Game 6 turned when the HEAT stopped trying to win a shootout with the Spurs and made it a defensive game. The Spurs' shooting efficiency was 63% in the 1st half and just 40% in the 2nd half. Which force will be more relentless and resilient in Game 7 - the HEAT defense or the Spurs offense?



The world will find out at 9 PM ET on June 20th.



The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated for all players from the Game 6 boxscore.

Boxscore and play-by-play data from NBA.com and PopcornMachine.net.

Heat 103 Spurs 100 ot tied 3-3

6 Thoughts

1) Epic.  No shoe, no headband.  No quit.  Epic.  Let it fly.

2) I don't know if Miami is going to win Game 7 or lose Game 7.  And I'm out of my element - I'm watching the games in a small beach town in Mexico, on a foreign tv, trying to be quiet so other people in my family on vacation with us can sleep, but also having my brother there - and he is, if possible, even a bigger Walter Ray Allen fan than I am.  So I can't really remember the sequence of plays like I normally can - sadly, it's my one true skill, I can recall every possession of a basketball game, not just the outcome of the play, but all the movements of all ten guys on the court, plus the benches, on every possession.  Remember that Udonis Haslem defensive rebound in the third quarter of a February game in Detroit?  I do.  But the one thing I will always remember is the Heat being down to its last chance, King James James missing a three to tie it, Chris Bosh, of all people, rising above the crowd, grabbing the ball in traffic, and flipping it out on the baseline to Ray Allen, who was already backing his way up to the three point line.  Ray, like I've seen him do a million times, stopped in the perfect spot - well behind the line, but in front of the sidelines, rose up with a guy in his chest, and drilled it.  Several things about the play were fiasco-like.  First of all, Greg Popovich subbed out Duncan as the Spurs were shooting the free throws, clearly to try to match up with Bosh on the perimeter to guard against a game tying three.  But that doesn't make any sense - why can't Duncan match up with Bosh on the perimeter?  It's not like they are going to run a screen for Bosh, something intricate for Duncan to deal with.  Bosh is going to stand in one spot behind the arc, and maybe KJ throws it to him, maybe not.  Why can't Duncan stand next to him out there?  Maybe Bosh doesn't get that rebound if Duncan is still in there - that's not playing the result, the premise that Duncan can't take a triple away from Bosh as a spot-up shooter for one possession doesn't make any sense.  Two, the Spurs probably called a timeout after the ball went through, and they didn't have any timeouts left, so it should have a technical free throw, because Coach Pop clearly ran on to the court screaming "you can't call that!!!"  Oops.  Third, the refs went and reviewed the triple, even though Ray was 3 or 4 inches behind the line and the ref, I believe it was Mike Callaghan, was in perfect position looking right at it.  So the Spurs got a free timeout to draw up a last set - again, they didn't have any left.  That's an abomination - you have to be better at your job than that.  (Editor's note: the refs also let the Spurs sub during the review of the triple - that's against the rules.  Bizarre - they blow a procedural rule in the waning moments of a Finals elimination game?)  But in the midst of all that, all that mess, was Ray's perfect stroke.  He says that the only way to prepare for situations like that is to practice them, over and over and over, until it becomes automatic, until it becomes a reflex.  There is no thought, there is only quiet, cold, perfect efficiency.  Being a basketball fan is about moments, right?  If you say you love basketball, that's what you mean, right?  You love the moments.  I've loved Ray Allen since he enrolled at the University of Connecticut many (many) years ago.  To have that moment with him?  And to share it not only with M.Minutos, but also my brother, who has loved Ray right along with me?  Never forget it.  Never forget you, forever, Ray.  Love you, forever, Ray... 

3) Most embarrassing thing ever: when KJ James made a little push shot off a drive-and-jam-the-ball-in-KJ's-stomach-from-two-feet-away play by Wade, the Heat went up 1 with 1:42 in overtime.  As I said, this never happens to me: but I didn't know the score.  I thought we were down one.  Remember Russell Westbrook in the Finals last year when he lost track of time and score and committed a horrific foul to end one of the games (I think Game 4)?  That was me tonight.  And, by the way, yes, Mexican tv shows the score, plus Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy are calling the game, so at any moment I could have glanced at the bottom of the screen and realized I was wrong.  But there were like 5 possessions, including the first block by Bosh on Parker's jumper, and the Danny Green foul on James that wasn't called and the out of bounds got reversed (again, the other worst use of replay - refs obviously would have called a foul on Green off the review if allowed to by rule) where I thought we were down one.  Didn't realize we were up one until the timeout just before Wade jacked the bad jumper from the top off a dead possession.  And I wasn't even drinking from the beach side shack/bar!

4) How did the Heat win the game?  I thought KJ was stagnant-y much of the night.  He fought and fought and fought, and dragged the Heat back into the game in the fourth quarter, and made a huge three when it was needed.  He also took Tony Parker much of the night, and helped harass him into a 6-23.  But at the same time, Tim Duncan was scoring 25 first half points, Wade was limping around the court, there was one third quarter stretch where Wade and James got knocked down on back-to-back drives while the Spurs shot 4 free throws on the other end without shooting the ball, and worst of all, Miami could not get a loose ball.  Every time the ball squirted loose, or went up on the glass, it felt like Mike Miller got his hands on it, only to be steamrolled to the court by Duncan, or Diaw, or Leonard, and the Spurs would pounce on it.  You know how many loose balls it felt like the Heat got?  Just one.  When the Spurs got a defensive rebound down one with 10 seconds to go, Kawhi Leonard started to pass the ball, no one looked at him, he walked like Chris Webber in the 1990-whatever NCAA championship game, dribbled, found Ginobili, Manu dribbled to the three point line, picked up his dribble, tucked the ball under his arm like a running back, lowered his head, couldn't find anyone to run into, kept running like three more steps, making about 6 total, Ray Allen reached in, stripped the ball loose, it caromed first off Dwyane Wade, then back to Ray, standing just a couple of inches in front of the baseline.  Spurs fouled, two Ray free throws dead-middle, Chris Bosh fed Danny Green a Spalding sandwich, and we all started getting ready for Juego 7.  That stripped ball could have gone anywhere - to a Spur for an open shot, off Wade out of bounds, Ray could have been standing out of bounds when he caught it.  It was the one loose ball we caught a break on all night.  More importantly: if Ray doesn't strip Manu, when would he have stopped running?  It didn't look like he was going to shoot, he was clearly body-hunting to try to get to the line.  "Travelling" had come and gone about 4 steps before he got to Ray.  Was he just going to run over the baseline, hammer a photographer, and throw the ball at the back of the backboard?  Maybe get to the baseline, turn around, and just run back to the other end of the court?  Remaining options were unclear, getting stripped might have actually been the best one.

5) Another thing that happens when you are watching the game out of your element: what actually did happen to KJ's headband?  I assume it was a protest to the accumulation of shots he took at the rim without getting a call - also, tacking on the defensive rebound he got in overtime when Kawhi Leonard trucked him to the floor, and the ref just looked at KJ like, "get up and dribble."  Not sure I've ever seen that play no called before.  But I never saw it come off, I wasn't really listening to Breen and Van Gundy, and by the time M.Minutos pointed it out to me, the moment was gone.  Did it get knocked off and he left it off?  Did he take it off himself?  Was he trying to one up Mike Mil-lar who started the fourth quarter comeback by making a triple in one shoe (shades of Mike Bibby)?  Is he wearing it for Juego 7?  I haven't read anything about the game yet.  I'm sure we're in for 2 days of headband talk.  That should be exciting. 

6) One of the people in Mexico with us is my 6 year old niece.  She's supercool, but she comes up to me this evening and says, "I'm bored."  I tried to remember the saying about being bored, but all I could come up with is, "there is no such thing as 'boring;' there are only boring people being bored in, ummm, I guess, boring situations?  Or something?"  My sister-in-law confirmed that that probably isn't the actual saying, and, also, forbade my niece from talking to me for the rest of the week.
-----
If we steal this title, boy...If we steal this title...  If you need me before Thursday, I definitely won't be bored: headband talk.  See you Thursday!
-----

HEAT Check: The Difference Between HEAT vs. Thunder Then and Spurs Now

LeBron James, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem and Dwyane Wade were more productive against the Thunder in the 2012 NBA Finals than they've been against the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals. Let's take a look at the numbers to see where their production's declined.

Joe Goodman Jr. from the Miami Herald posted a comparison of the HEAT offense vs. the Thunder in 2012 to the Spurs in 2013 after 5 games. He noted the biggest difference was the 7-point drop in LeBron James' scoring average.

Let's do the same comparison using Est. Wins Produced.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Est. Wins Produced by HEAT in 5 Games of 2013 NBA Finals

PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
L James	5	206.3	0.184	0.791
C Bosh	5	174.2	0.209	0.758
R Allen	5	131.9	0.159	0.436
M Miller	5	103.6	0.177	0.383
D Wade	5	179.5	0.100	0.372
J Anthony	4	15.0	0.346	0.108
M Chalmers	5	138.2	0.022	0.065
C Andersen	3	38.2	0.031	0.025
N Cole	5	81.7	-0.003	-0.006
J Jones	3	11.8	-0.188	-0.046
R Lewis	3	11.8	-0.444	-0.109
U Haslem	5	61.9	-0.125	-0.161
S Battier	5	45.9	-0.188	-0.180

Est. Wins Produced by HEAT in 5 Games of 2012 NBA Finals

PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
L James	5	220.4	0.223	1.024
D Wade	5	203.2	0.131	0.553
C Bosh	5	182.8	0.142	0.541
M Chalmers	5	182.5	0.117	0.445
M Miller	5	44.6	0.337	0.313
S Battier	5	187.3	0.078	0.304
U Haslem	5	81.4	0.035	0.059
T Harris	1	3.0	0.690	0.043
J Jones	4	42.9	0.038	0.034
R Turiaf	1	3.0	0.164	0.010
J Anthony	1	2.1	-0.052	-0.002
J Howard	1	3.0	-0.650	-0.041
N Cole	4	43.9	-0.168	-0.154

Then and Now

Based on est. wins produced, the order of the blame game for biggest drops in production from the 2012 NBA Finals to the 2013 NBA Finals is as follows:

1. Shaved Monkey Nuts


2. Mario Chalmers


3. LeBron James


4. Udonis Haslem


5. Dwyane Wade

Chris Bosh and Mike Miller's production improved from 2012 to 2013 (they're a lot healthier).

Here's how the differences shake out...

• LeBron in 2013:




• 3 mpg less than 2012 (but some Corporate Heaux Bloggers will tell you he's exhausted)


• Increased HEAT chance of winning 4.6% less per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency is 2% lower from the floor, 9% lower from the free throw line


• Free throw attempts decreased by 5.6 per 48 minutes


• Scoring 6 less points per 48 minutes


• 1 less offensive rebound per 48 minutes, 2.4 more defensive rebounds per 48 minutes


• 1.8 less turnovers per 48 minutes


• 1 more steal per 48 minutes


• 0.8 more blocks per 48 minutes


• 1 less foul per 48 minutes




• Dwyane Wade in 2013:




• Nearly 5 mpg less than 2012


• Increased HEAT chance of winning 3.6% less per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency is 3.5% higher from the floor


• Shot attempts increased 2.4 per 48 minutes


• Free throw attempts decreased 4.6 per 48 minutes


• Defensive rebounds decreased 3.6 per 48 minutes


• Steals increased 1.5 per 48 minutes


• Turnovers decreased 0.9 per 48 minutes


• Assists increased 1.1 per 48 minutes


• Fouls decreased 1.9 per 48 minutes




• Chris Bosh in 2013:




• 1.7 mpg less than 2012


• Increased HEAT chance of winning 4.3% more per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency 4% higher from the floor, 9.6% lower from the free throw line


• Steals increased 2 per 48 minutes


• Blocks increased 0.6 per 48 minutes


• Assists increased 2.7 per 48 minutes


• Fouls increased 1.5 per 48 minutes




• Mario Chalmers in 2013:




• Nearly 9 mpg less than 2012


• Increased HEAT chance of winning 7.6% less per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency 12% lower from the floor


• Shot attempts increased 2.9 per 48 minutes


• Defensive rebounds increased 1.7 per 48 minutes


• Steals decreased 1.4 per 48 minutes


• Turnovers increased 1.2 per 48 minutes


• Blocks decreased 0.5 per 48 minutes


• Assists decreased 1.5 per 48 minutes




• Udonis Haslem in 2013:




• Nearly 4 mpg less than 2012


• Decreased HEAT chance of winning 4.4% more per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency 4.5% higher from the floor


• Shot attempts increased 1 per 48 minutes


• Free throw attempts decreased 2.7 per 48 minutes


• Offensive rebounds decreased 1.6 per 48 minutes


• Defensive rebounds increased 1.8 per 48 minutes


• Turnovers decreased 2.1 per 48 minutes


• Blocks decreased 0.4 per 48 minutes


• Assists decreased 1.2 per 48 minutes


• Fouls increased 3.6 per 48 minutes




• Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier in 2013:




• 28 mpg less than 2012


• Decreased HEAT chance of winning 9.7% more per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency 56% lower from the floor


• Shot attempts decreased 7.8 per 48 minutes


• Scoring 2.4 points less per 48 minutes


• Defensive rebounds increased 2.5 per 48 minutes


• Steals decreased 1 per 48 minutes


• Blocks increased 2.1 per 48 minutes


• Assists increased 4.7 per 48 minutes


• Fouls increased 1.9 per 48 minutes




• Mike Miller in 2013:




• Nearly 12 mpg more than 2012


• Increased HEAT chance of winning 1.4% more per game than 2012


• Shooting efficiency 33% higher from the floor


• Shot attempts decreased 11.2 per 48 minutes


• Free throw attempts decreased 6.5 per 48 minutes


• Scoring decreased 20 points per 48 minutes


• Defensive rebounds decreased 4.4 per 48 minutes


• Turnovers increased 0.9 per 48 minutes


• Blocks decreased 0.6 per 48 minutes


• Fouls decreased 5.1 per 48 minutes

Original data from NBA.com and PopcornMachine.net.

HEAT Check: Dwyane Wade Not To Blame For Danny Green's BIG Game 5

Dwyane Wade got most of the blame for Danny Green's 24 points in Game 5 of the NBA Finals but his defense didn't surrender most of the points.



I watched all 24 points Green scored in Game 5 using mysynergysports.com. Green scored 24 points on 9 plays (8 shots and 2 free throws). Wade was only responsible for guarding Green on 2 of his scoring plays.



Let's breakdown Green's scoring...

1. 11:02 in Q1: Green cut behind LeBron James for a layup. 2 points.


2. 8:40 in Q2: Ray Allen collapsed into the paint to triple-team Tiago Splitter, Splitter passed back out to Boris Diaw who swung it to Green who hit a spot-up 3 as Allen closed out too late. 5 points.


3. 7:40 in Q2: Green spotted up for a corner 3, Mario Chalmers took his eyes off him, Green ran behind him on the baseline to the opposite corner and Manu Ginobili swung the ball to him as he spotted up for an open 3. 8 points.


4. 7:01 in Q2: Ray Allen left Green to double-team Parker after Bosh switched onto him in the pick-and-roll and Parker hit Green for another open spot-up 3. 11 points.


5. 2:46 in Q2: Ray Allen chased Green off the 3-point line and fouled him after he drove by him and went up for a shot over Udonis Haslem in the lane. Green made both free throws. 13 points.


6. 9:40 in Q3: Ginobili knocked the ball loose from Dwyane Wade. Green and Wade dove on the floor for it, Green got it, passed to Ginobili who took off on the break. Green got off the floor before Dwyane Wade and beat him down court for an open 3 in transition as LeBron James watched with his hands down. 16 points.


7. 2:54 in Q3: Dwyane Wade sagged off Green in halfcourt. Diaw set a screen on his defender, Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier, and handed the ball off to Green who pulled up for an open 3 as Dwyane Wade contested the shot too late. 19 points.


8. 8:15 in Q4: Ray Allen closed out hard on Green at the 3-point line and he drove by Ray Allen for a floater in the lane. 21 points.


9. 1:06 in Q4: LeBron James missed a layup, Ginobili took off leading a 3-on-3 break with Parker and Green on the wings with Mike Miller, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen back for the HEAT. Mike Miller picked up Ginobili to stop the ball, Ray Allen went with Parker and Chris Bosh stayed in the paint. Green went to the corner and hit an open 3 in transition as Chris Bosh couldn't close the distance in time. 24 points.

Here's how Green's scoring breaks down by defender:

• 10 points on Ray Allen


• 3-6 points on Dwyane Wade (if you blame him for not tossing Green off him and beating Green down court after his turnover)


• 3 points on Mario Chalmers


• 2-5 points on LeBron James (if you blame him for not closing out hard on Green in transition after Wade's turnover)


• 0-3 points on Chris Bosh (who was put in a tough spot on the break - leave Miller 1-on-1 with Ginobili or leave Green in the corner for a 3? Ray Allen probably should've went with Green instead of Parker on the break.)

The HEAT's 4 core perimeter players all surrendered points to Green in Game 5. Ray Allen was the biggest problem, but the HEAT need to be better collectively if they want to control the ultimate Random Scrub HEAT Killer and get a different outcome in Game 6.

Play-by-play taken from NBA.com.

Danny Green: From Random Scrub HEAT Killer to Finals MVP?

How did HEAT fans end up in a situation where they could be watching a Random Scrub HEAT Killer like Danny Green become Finals MVP after breaking the record for threes in the NBA Finals? Good question. 

Green's performance in the NBA Finals is best explained by a scene from Matrix:Reloaded.

HEAT fans know that 1 of the flaws in the team's execution of Erik Spoelstra's defensive system is that open 3s will be available to random scrubs from game-to-game. Those scrubs can kill the HEAT when they knock those shots down - or at least make the games closer than they should be.



Danny Green's record-setting performance in the Finals is the sum of the remainder from this unbalanced equation in the HEAT defense. 32 players dropped 4 or more threes on the HEAT in a game this season. That number ranks 6th in the NBA. OKC was the only other team from the top 10 in defensive efficiency that allowed more players to hit 4+ threes than the HEAT.



The spreadsheet below lists the number of players each team allowed to hit 4+ threes this season.

The list of Random Scrub HEAT Killers ranges from Alan Anderson of the Raptors to Cartier Martin and A.J. Price on the Wizards.

While it's the 6th longest list in the NBA this season, only 2 players managed to hit 4+ threes twice against the HEAT defense: Carmelo Anthony and Steve Novak. Green has done it 4 times in the Finals, but his performance is the eventuality of an anomaly that, despite Spo's sincerest efforts to eliminate from the team's habits, is not without a measure of control.



That means being faster and more physical than the Spurs on both sides of the ball for the next 2 games. It'd be nice if LeBron James outplayed Kawhi Leonard, too.



The tables below show that the RSHK anomaly has made the biggest impact in the Finals after 5 games.

Est. Wins Produced by 

 Spurs in 2013 NBA Finals

PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
D Green	5	169.9	0.248	0.880
K Leonard	5	164.5	0.242	0.831
T Parker	5	167.3	0.176	0.612
T Duncan	5	166.7	0.105	0.363
C Joseph	5	42.4	0.185	0.163
D Blair	3	17.3	0.268	0.097
G Neal	5	120.0	0.028	0.071
T McGrady	2	14.3	0.072	0.021
N de Colo	2	5.0	0.205	0.021
M Bonner	5	36.1	-0.011	-0.008
P Mills	2	13.4	-0.068	-0.019
B Diaw	4	58.3	-0.050	-0.061
M Ginobili	5	129.7	-0.060	-0.162
T Splitter	5	95.0	-0.124	-0.246

Est. Wins Produced by 

HEAT in 2013 NBA Finals

PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
L James	5	206.3	0.184	0.791
C Bosh	5	174.2	0.209	0.758
R Allen	5	131.9	0.159	0.436
M Miller	5	103.6	0.177	0.383
D Wade	5	179.5	0.100	0.372
J Anthony	4	15.0	0.346	0.108
M Chalmers	5	138.2	0.022	0.065
C Andersen	3	38.2	0.031	0.025
N Cole	5	81.7	-0.003	-0.006
J Jones	3	11.8	-0.188	-0.046
R Lewis	3	11.8	-0.444	-0.109
U Haslem	5	61.9	-0.125	-0.161
S Battier	5	45.9	-0.188	-0.180

There's a reason the HEAT won 66 games despite facing 32 Random Scrub Heat Killers all season. The HEAT will need to strengthen the other parts of their game to prevent the RSHK anomaly from defeating them in the NBA Finals and winning Finals MVP.

2013 NBA Finals: Older Gods Strike Back in Game 5. Will 3 Kings Defend the Throne in Game 6?

The Older Gods were faster, more physical, less fatigued and more aggressive than the Miami HEAT in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. What adjustments do the 3 Kings and Erik Spoelstra need to make for Game 6?



Fast: Advantage Spurs

Steals: HEAT 8, Spurs 5

Fast break points: Spurs 18, HEAT 16

Transition offense: Spurs 21 points on 14 plays, HEAT 15 points on 17 plays



Tony Parker and Danny Green each scored 6 points in transition for the Spurs.



Physical: Advantage Spurs

Offensive rebounding: HEAT grabbed 24% of missed shots, Spurs grabbed 17% of missed shots

Pick & rolls and post-ups: HEAT 26 points on 36 plays, Spurs 17 points on 21 plays

Isolation: Spurs 27 points on 19 plays, HEAT 7 points on 11 plays

Points in the paint: Spurs 50, HEAT 40



Spurs scored 17 points in the paint off isolation plays (including free throws). Tony Parker scored 13 points in isolation and shot 9-9 in the paint for the game.



Free Space: Advantage Spurs

Spot-ups: Spurs 34 points on 28 plays, HEAT 30 points on 20 plays



Green scored 11 points on spot-ups as he continued to bomb the HEAT out of the gym.



Fatigue: Advantage Spurs

4th quarter execution

• Spurs: 27 points, 65% shooting efficiency, 6 turnovers, 2 off. rebounds, 5-6 free throw shooting, increased probability of winning the game 14%


• HEAT: 29 points, 60% shooting efficiency, 5 turnovers, 4 off. rebounds, 5-7 free throw shooting, increased probability of winning the game 7%

Tony Parker dominated the 4th quarter with 9 points on 4 shots and 4 free throws. He also had 2 assists and increased the Spurs' chance of winning by 11% in the 4th quarter. Parker got whatever he wanted to keep the Spurs' lead in double digits down the stretch.



Foul Trouble: Advantage Spurs

Fouls: Spurs 21, HEAT 24

Free throws (FTs) per shot ratio: Spurs 21 FTs on 70 shots (30%), HEAT 19 FTs on 86 shots (22%)



Parker and Manu Ginobili each got to the free throw line 8 times. Here's a list of the HEAT players that put them on the FT line: Ray Allen (twice), Mike Miller (twice), Cole, Wade, Udonis Haslem, Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier.



Most Productive Players

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.



Tony Parker and Tim Duncan were the most productive players on the floor. Each of them increased the Spurs' chance of winning 27%. Parker did it with 26 points on 10-14 shooting, 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Duncan did it with 17 points, 70% shooting, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks and just 1 foul.



Combined with Parker and Duncan, Manu Ginobili's 24 points, 61% shooting efficiency and 10 assists increased the Spurs' chance of winning by 73%. The Older Gods completely outplayed the 3 Kings, who only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 28%.



Chris Bosh was the most productive of the 3 Kings with 16 points, 64% shooting and 6 rebounds to increase the HEAT's chance of winning 12%.  Dwyane Wade and LeBron James were ineffective as they combined to shoot 9-25 in the paint and commit 7 turnovers.



If the 3 Kings don't reassert their dominance over the Older Gods, then Game 6 will be a repeat of 2011.



Ray Allen was the most productive HEAT player and the only professional in the 4th quarter as he single-handedly kept the game from being a blowout. Allen increased the HEAT's chance of winning 24% with 21 points, 90% shooting efficiency (4-4 from three) and 4 rebounds. 15 of Allen's 21 points came in the 4th quarter when he increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 22%.



Least Productive Players

Gary Neal, the hero of Game 3, was the least productive player in the game. He decreased the Spurs' chance of winning by 15% with just 2 points on 1-4 shooting with 1 turnover and 2 fouls.



Mario Chalmers was the least productive HEAT player with 7 points on 2-10 shooting, 2 turnovers and 5 fouls. As bad as 'Rio was, Norris Cole only played 6.5 minutes in the game because he wasn't any better. Cole decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 8% with 0 points, 0-1 shooting, 1 turnover and 1 foul as he got TORCHED by Tony Parker.



The game was tied 17-17 and Parker had 0 points and 0 assists when Cole checked into the game with 4:32 left in the 1st quarter. Parker proceeded to score or assist on 5 of the Spurs' next 6 possessions for 7 points and 1 dime. The Spurs were up 27-17 when Parker checked out the game 3 minutes later.



That story leads to the biggest adjustment coach Erik Spoelstra should make for Game 6...



No Point Guards & Lineup Adjustments

#HEATProduced No PG lineups were +9 in 15.6 mins of Gm5. PG lineups were -19: http://t.co/lNA7NA49yP

— reservoirgod (@MIA_Heat_Index) June 17, 2013

No Cole in Game 6. Short lease for Chalmers if he's turning the ball over and missing shots. Replace Chalmers with Ray Allen, Mike Miller or James Jones when he comes out the game - anybody EXCEPT Shaved Monkey Nuts. This series has become a shootout, so the HEAT can't put players out there firing blanks. That was a big part of the problem after they cut the lead to 74-75 with 3:05 left in the 3rd quarter.



At 74-75, there was 1 unproductive player in the HEAT lineup - Shaved Monkey Nuts (-0.188 est.WP48 in the Finals). The Spurs ran off a 13-1 run as Spo ADDED the following unproductive players to the lineup to play together:

• Cole (-0.003 est.WP48 in the Finals)


• UD (-0.125 est.WP48 in the Finals)


• Miller (0.177 est.WP48 in the Finals)

Spo put 4 unproductive players on the floor at the SAME TIME in the crucial moment of a game that he said he wanted to be the team's best effort. He sabotaged the team's best effort with that lineup and made it worse by adding Chalmers to the mix to start the 4th quarter and the Spurs continued to roll until the run was 21-2 and the game was out of reach. At this point in the series, if Rio has a bad 1st/3rd quarter, he shouldn't play in the 2nd/4th quarter. Spo should go to the No PG Lineup.



Without PGs, let Wade or LeBron guard Parker while the other wing player guards Danny Green. Let Bosh make up for any energy Wade and LeBron lose on offense after guarding Parker since Bosh scored efficiently the last 2 games.



The 3 Kings need to show up in Game 6 and Spo-proof the game in case the lineups don't put them in the best position to win.



The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced by all players estimated from the box score for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

Stats taken from mysynergysports.com, NBA Stats, NBA.com and PopcornMachine.net.